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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.